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Casago Idyllwild, a DBA of Acme CA, Inc. California DRE #02420145. Michael Flannery, Designated Broker.
Idyllwild · Method
A projection is a model, not a forecast. This page explains what goes into one for an Idyllwild cabin, which assumptions carry the most weight, and what a projection cannot responsibly claim.
Existing owner? Access your Owner Portal
In most markets a projection starts with comparable performance. Here it starts with whether the cabin can legally be advertised at all. County Planning caps Idyllwild certificates at 500, requires 150 feet between short-term rentals and allows no owner more than two, and it only opens a Tier 2 lottery when the count falls below the cap, evaluated each January and July. A projection for a property with no certificate and no open window is a projection of something that cannot happen yet. Establish the eligibility position first and date it.
The next input is the approved occupancy, because it caps the guest count every rate assumption rests on. Riverside County ties occupancy to 200 square feet per person and to lot size: up to ten occupants on half an acre or less, up to sixteen between half an acre and two acres, and a maximum of twenty above two acres, with anything larger referred to the Planning Department. Above ten occupants the Building Official's pre-approved upgrade list applies. Adding beds does not add occupancy, and on-site parking must accommodate the approved number, with off-site parking not permitted. A model built on a sleeps-twelve assumption for a half-acre lot is wrong before it starts.
Most seasonality models assume a repeatable annual pattern. Idyllwild resists that. State Parks says wet winters can dump several feet of snow while dry winters may only result in a few inches here and there, so winter volume varies with the weather rather than the calendar. Summer is the reliable trail season but carries quota-limited weekend wilderness permits and the year's highest fire danger. Spring and autumn are milder and quieter. A defensible model treats winter as a range rather than a point, and says so.
Cabin operating costs are not a percentage of revenue. They are a list. Heating through a cold month. Snow clearing, with a contract that has to hold through a heavy winter and comply with the ordinance's limits on where cleared snow may go. Gutter and roof work under conifers, repeated rather than annual. Tree and defensible-space work. Deck and exterior finish maintenance at altitude. Water-system freeze protection. Longer travel time for any trade coming up the hill, which shows up in every invoice. A projection that models these as a flat percentage of a rate assumption is not modelling this market.
Ask which occupancy it assumes and whether that matches the County limit for the lot size. Ask what it assumes about winter, and what the low case looks like. Ask which costs are included and which are excluded, and whether snow clearing and tree work are in there. Ask what date the regulatory position was checked. Ask for the range, not the midpoint. And ask what would have to be true for the number to be wrong, because a model that cannot be falsified is marketing.
This public site does not calculate property-specific results and publishes no rate, occupancy or revenue figures. Property-level work happens in the Owner Portal, where the assumptions can be tied to your address, your costs and your own calendar under its own permissions. The owner-use and amenity break-even worksheets on this site are educational: every input is labelled as yours or illustrative, and neither produces a quote.
Because it would be an average of cabins that differ by elevation, access, parking and County-approved occupancy, presented to someone whose property is none of those. The honest version is property-specific and needs your costs and calendar, which is why it is produced in the Owner Portal rather than published.
Eligibility, then approved occupancy. A cabin that cannot hold a certificate has no short-stay model, and the County's occupancy limit by lot size caps every rate assumption above it. Both are determinable facts rather than estimates, which is why they come first.
As a set of assumptions to interrogate. Ask for the occupancy assumed, the winter low case, the cost lines included, the date the regulatory position was checked and the range rather than the midpoint. A projection that cannot show its assumptions is not one.
Next step
Continue to the Owner Portal for a property-specific conversation. Prospective owners choose I'm considering the program. Existing owners sign in as an owner. Nothing about your home is sent from this page.
